The Return of Donald Trump: A New Era for Global Trade
Global Trade Under Scrutiny
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, global trade is once again at the forefront of international relations. The proposed tariffs on imports and exports have sparked concern across markets, leaving businesses, governments, and consumers wondering about the future of economic relationships between the US, UK, and EU.
The UK’s Unique Vulnerability
For the UK, the stakes are particularly high. The US is Britain’s largest single-country trading partner, accounting for 15.4% of exports, valued at over £60bn annually. Sectors such as automotive, aerospace, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and machinery dominate these exports but also face stiff competition from US-based firms.
According to Brad Levy, CEO of Symphony, adjusting to new trade dynamics would be complex for businesses. "It’s not that easy to change accounting standards and move your physical businesses around the world, open offices, set up systems," he said, referencing lessons learned from Brexit.
The logistical and financial difficulties could limit UK firms from finding expedient solutions, such as relocating production to the US to avoid tariffs. This could lead UK companies to either absorb the added costs – cutting into profit margins – or pass those costs on to consumers, potentially losing competitiveness, Levy said.
Ripple Effects
The potential consequences of Trump’s tariffs extend beyond profit losses. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimates that such protectionist measures from the US could slash UK economic growth by 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points in the first two years, while driving up inflation and potentially causing a rise in interest rates.
Challenges for the Transatlantic Relationship
Political dynamics between a Republican-led US government and the Labour-led UK government could further complicate matters. Levy acknowledged the surface-level tensions but pointed to the potential for behind-the-scenes collaboration. "At first glance, it will feel very acrimonious – lots of conflict, a lot of noise," he explained. "But below that, I think there’s going to be more cooperation than people expect. Over time, things will get done."
The EU’s Strategic Position
Levy emphasized the economic roles of key countries such as Germany and France in the European Union’s response to Trump’s tariffs. "Germany is a very large market, a manufacturing hub," Levy said. "France is a very large market in financial services, but also has quite a bit of engineering talent. You can’t treat France and Germany completely the same, in my opinion, from a US perspective."
Selective Tariffs and Broader Economic Shifts
Rather than imposing blanket tariffs, Trump’s administration is expected to apply them selectively, targeting industries like steel, energy, textiles, and agriculture based on strategic priorities. While China will likely remain a central focus, other regions – including Mexico, Canada, the UK, and parts of the EU – are expected to face targeted measures.
"Tariffs will not be implemented across the world to fund some gap," Levy said. "It will be done in a way that advantages the US and its allies." He added that tariffs could be used to protect US industries and to extract concessions in trade negotiations.
Beyond trade wars, the broader economic shift reflects what Levy termed ‘regional rationalism.’ He argued that globalisation has pushed supply chains to unsustainable extremes, increasing inefficiencies and risks. "We’ve gone too far in sourcing everything from halfway around the world," Levy said. "Now, there’s a move to localise production. Look at the US investing in chip manufacturing or France with its AI champion, Mistral – these things need to get regionalised."
He added that this move is not just protectionism, ‘it’s about building resilience and energy efficiency.’
Potential New Era for Government Efficiency
Another notable feature of Trump’s economic agenda is Elon Musk’s appointment as head of the newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). While dramatic federal cuts seem unlikely, Musk’s role signals a focus on reducing redundancies and streamlining government operations.
"As Trump’s policies take shape, businesses and governments must prepare for the possibility of upheaval," Levy said. "Higher tariffs and shifting corporate tax structures could force companies to make difficult decisions about their supply chains, production hubs, and pricing strategies."
Navigating Complexity with Pragmatism and Innovation
The challenge lies in navigating these complexities with a mix of pragmatism and innovation. Whether this marks the start of a more balanced trade landscape – or further fractures in global economic ties – will depend on how leaders and industries respond to the shifting tides.
For the UK, EU, and US, the key is adapting to the new dynamics. While disruptions will be significant, they also present opportunities for smarter trade policies and more resilient economies.
